One billion PCs in use by the End 2008 and Two by 2015
There will be over one billion PCs in use worldwide by the end of 2008, and with PC adoption in emerging markets growing fast, there will be more than two billion PCs in use by 2015, Forrester predicts.
According to a study done by Gartner back in 2002, approximately one billion PCs were shipped worldwide since the mid-’70s. Seventy-five percent of these machines have gone into professional, or work-related environments, while the other 25 percent have been for personal, or home, use. Approximately 81.5 percent of PCs shipped were desktops.
While it will have taken 27 years to reach 1bn PCs, Forrester says it will take only five years to reach the next billion. The analyst firm attributes this boom to lower prices and growing demand as the world population becomes “technology-aware”.
So far, most of the PCs shipped have gone into developed nations. The United States has received 38.8 percent, or 394 million, of PCs shipped. Nearly 25 percent have gone to Europe, while only 11.7 percent have gone into the Asia-Pacific region, the fastest-growing market today.
But the next big opportunity is emerging markets, especially in countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, where the expansion of the global economy and extension of the IT infrastructure have caused an explosion in the PC user population. By 2015, these four markets alone will account for more than 775 million in new PCs.
Forrester forecasts an acceleration in growth but also unpredictability in emerging markets. Vendors, it notes, are used to the predictability of buyers in mature markets, but high-volume launches into emerging markets are risky. According to Forrester, PC sellers won’t have the luxury of introducing products on a small scale to test the market before going into full production because the economics will force suppliers to focus on bringing volume to market more quickly at much greater risk.
Forrester praises Microsoft Unlimited Potential, the Intel World Ahead Program, AMD 50×15, and OLPC for their efforts in reaching untapped markets. Its findings are contained in a report entitled Worldwide PC Adoption Forecast to 2015.
Note: In 2004, the UN estimated that around one billion people worldwide, 20 percent of the global population, still lack connection to any kind of information and communication technology.